The US shoplifting scourge is a lot of hype with little evidence

There has been widespread concern about shoplifting in the United States since 2020, with some retailers and politicians claiming that retail crime is escalating out of control. However, these claims are not supported by the facts. While theft does occur in stores and on the streets, the notion that shoplifting has significantly increased since the start of the pandemic is unsubstantiated. In reality, nationwide retail crime has remained relatively stable over the past few years and has even decreased in many areas.

A recent study that analyzed police data found that shoplifting reports were 16% higher in the first half of 2023 compared to 2019. However, excluding data from New York City, the number of shoplifting incidents actually decreased by 7% or around 2,550 fewer incidents than in 2019, according to the study conducted by the Council on Criminal Justice.

Overall, the study revealed that shoplifting patterns have followed similar trends as other types of theft over the past five years, with shoplifting remaining below pre-pandemic levels through 2022.

Even the National Retail Federation (NRF), the primary lobbying group for the retail industry, has acknowledged that previous reports about retail crime were exaggerated. The NRF has retracted a key point in one of its widely cited reports, which initially claimed that organized retail crime was responsible for “nearly half” of all inventory losses in 2021. However, it was revealed that this claim was based on inference rather than data or research.

Major retailers such as Target, Dick’s, and Walgreens have mentioned increasing theft as a factor affecting their profitability in recent earnings calls. However, external theft, including shoplifting, accounts for approximately 36% of overall inventory losses, which is consistent with pre-pandemic levels. Employee theft and losses due to mishandling or loss of goods make up a similar percentage of inventory losses.

Measuring retail theft, including shoplifting, is challenging, and federal-level statistics are not available. However, according to FBI data specifically tracking shoplifting incidents, the number of incidents has decreased compared to five to ten years ago.

In summary, the overall trend of shoplifting in the United States has not undergone significant changes, although there may be localized increases in certain cities. Retail theft remains a complex issue that is difficult to quantify accurately.